The Diamondbacks’ luck might last
August 10, 2007
Somehow, the Diamondbacks are in first place despite having been outscored this season by 28 runs.
They’re 65-51 with an expected pythagorean record of 55-61 (they’ve scored 484 runs, allowed 512), meaning they’re playing a ridiculous 10 games better than their pythagorean record. The next highest difference between actual record and pythagorean record belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals, six games better (53-59 compared to 47-65).
For those of you who don’t know what I’m talking about, studies have shown in the past that teams will generally win close to the number of games that the difference between the number of runs they score and allow. It makes sense when you think about it — the Red Sox are really, really good because they score a lot more runs than they give up, and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are really, really bad because they give up a lot more runs than they score.
But Arizona has been an exception this year. While looking at those stats might lead you to believe that Arizona will regress, I’ve been waiting for that to happen for a couple of months and the Diamonbacks have only moved up in the standings, currently with a three-game lead over the Padres and a five-game lead over the Rockies and Dodgers.
Arizona may regress a little, but just because they’ve over-achieved to this point doesn’t mean they have to underachieve the rest of the way. If Arizona plays 22-24 the rest of the way, which is what their expected record says they should, San Diego would have to go 27-21 to pass them, which given the way they’ve played this year, is far from a lock.
And if the 83-78 St. Louis Cardinals can win the World Series, well, anything can happen in the playoffs.
Gilbert
Ben
August 10, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Yeah, you can’t rule anyone out. Even if the Mets probably beat the Cards in the NLCS 7 out of every 10 times (including injury risk) and would seem like an overwhelming favorite, they are nowhere close to a lock and the Cards aren’t dead meat. They’re just incredibly, incredibly lucky. And I’m still incredibly, incredibly bitter, because this is the first time in months that the Mets have had their entire starting lineup healthy (then they lose in the 9th).
Then I realize the alternative. In the NBA, the “best” team will win a 7 game series an overwhelming majority of the time. But the odds that I fall asleep watching are even greater.
August 11, 2007 at 5:08 pm
The run or points scored differential can be misleading. 2 years ago the Green Bay Packers had a better point differential than last year when they won 4 more games than in ‘05. I agree point differential can be a key indicator of team strength but it is far from totally indicative.
The Sultan on Sports
http://www.tsos20.wordpress.com
August 13, 2007 at 9:34 am
Noah, I like what baseball has more than the NBA. While ideally, I’d like the best team to win a little bit more than they do right now, the baseball playoffs are always exciting. For the NBA playoffs to be exciting, it’s rare. I wish at least baseball would make the first round best-of-7.
Sultan, run or points scored differential isn’t perfect, but it’s a great predictor of how good or bad a team will be. It’s not everything, as you say, but keep in mind the sample size. It takes 10 NFL season to have the sample size of one MLB season.